EPSTEIN
page 1 / 358 . OCR, unverified
Dataset10 078
--- SOURCE: IMAGES__0078__EFTA01452971.txt ---
METADATA_SOURCE: IMAGES0078
METADATA_FILENAME: EFTA01452971.pdf
----------------------------------------
February 2014
Health Care Facilities and Services
HCA Holdings, Inc.
Figure 2: Same-store t ends (yoy % change)
ICA. Inc.
48010440% 40104•14/4% 4040114
2010 200
1012
2012
3012 400 2012
1013
2011
2043
4013
2013
11•044.4
Nu Waturle
Wens:
20%
33%
51%
31%
33%
55% 15%
01%
30%
•9%
33% 31%
404440304
A*4444•041441as
0.1%
I 4%
23%
30%
32%
25%
21%
43%
MI
30%
205
50%
30%
11%
0.1%
13%
0T% -I A%
-07%
11%
1.1%
-10%
01%
01%
3,4441 twytio•
Oup•04ra *sprits
-IA%
-1.2%
.1.7%
-06%
15%
-07%
.22%
09%
27%
03%
430%
13%
01%
OK
.24%
02%
2.9%
OK
.43%
00%
OA%
IS%
03%
435%
Tad surotkri
PHs
Ma
Itavora41.44•4414Stinbre
-1.3%
2.I%
00%
-I 0%
01%
03%
23%
-0 1% -13%
11%
53%
64%
2K I2t%
03%
-0 1%
07%
05%
05%
36%
03%
-34%
01%
135
11%
34%
OK 01" .24%
03%
21711.
34%
414%
-02%
02%
30%
•10123a sauna/ .0•53044.0wi issweuss%. Sitt%10%005.10.5.00.0.0•00.1•000...00.% 0‘4•00550/0/0”20%••Thst.-
5•10150ons
Sant DatioWIMN4 C3,04744444rts
Surgical trends. 04 surgical trends were solid, with total SS surgeries up
+ 1.4% split between SS inpatient surgeries +0.9% and SS outpatient surgeries
+1.6%. These trends led to a greater ratio SS inpatient surgeries to total SS
inpatient admissions at 29.8% (vs. 29% in the prior yr period), an important
driver of the increased pricing (+4.8%) and acuity (+3%) in the qtr. Prior to the
downturn this ratio had been running closer to 32%-33%. and it has picked up
in recent quarters after reaching a low of -28%. On the CC, mgt attributed
these trends to (1) recent investments in the surgical departments (e.g. "0.R.
of Choice" initiative), offset by (2) a slow-down in ER volumes vs. historical
trends. HCA remains optimistic about the surgical front in 2014.
[Figure 3: Surgical trends (yoy % change)
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
30%
4.0%
-3.0%
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q20 1Q11 2011 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q1Z 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
..........4nwatKot worms
44.444.00074114)0I wrg ,e
^^Tall $4110110$
Sang O4.4.4.• /1414. Campinytipat
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Page 5
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
DB-SDNY-0110325
CONFIDENTIAL
SDNY_GM_00256509
EFTA01452971
--- SOURCE: IMAGES__0078__EFTA01452972.txt ---
METADATA_SOURCE: IMAGES0078
METADATA_FILENAME: EFTA01452972.pdf
----------------------------------------
February 2014
Health Care Facilities and Services
HCA Holdings, Inc.
(Figure 6: Balance sheet & Cash flow analysis IS in MM, except per share data)
Sias Wane GAM= Marls
♦MY% ani.S1•0
ebl
All
160
SOO
Oa
MO
Oa
Ha
wla
4411
rs
a•Marlia
•ORk
Oa:
.ariciaa
m
11.11 I
teal
^Ma
*mflaiiiiia
it]
11}11
no
VII
ililaeasalidagiallaiseltala p..
—Stre rwr
Ewa %maim
:Oa inatai• imasitraasoni
aiaka
d
I
Iw ni41 %Mann
Mt
:ar.eamania
dl.r.
4n/
!Val
410
tart
Caitenialnialrilaisaalary4
KW)
R$4
ata,
asaaataijaial
I05
ala
0•1•0•0441011C
Cuadiria114040
Mil
afil
,4•0:41antetrat
401.4.01
•
• it •
44,
al
401
NM
417
Ilpll
041i
MN
LX
till
Ma
• 6n
nig
:1 IWO
1.4/9
0401 MAY
I IV
4194
424
0.164i
I t,
1517
PMN
Sn
14,
on
MO
MS. SIX.
M,
I./41
tl
U
0.17b
131%
Oa)
40%
In
ila
In
la%
lit!
00%
Ca4I O.14C1
IN,
a*
IC1
fin
I401 11.011
Sal
Na
11,11
SY)
1101
176
414* ...a>
NI1
940194
002
1706
115
Mai
120.-41 MASI VIM SRNS
44.
41i
•P
4te
ASS
MS
411
440
446
(00
40%
wa•
I
PSI)
MC)
OW) ((MU
Na
144%
en
sr%
ITH
aR
PO
MN I1.7),
SS:
IN
SW
MO Ie.»?
Via
1•12
MI
MN
0414
WWI 171,16 IVACO
I2).1V 1>19p
4$•
41.•
Is
41)
412
401
al
MO
Savor DaIld* dint OMWS/teot.
Guidance. HCA issued 2014 guidance as follows: revenue $35.50436.50
billion, adjusted EBITDA $6.60-$6.85 billion, adjusted EPS $3.4543.75, capex
approx. $2.2 billion. 2014 guidance includes a benefit to adjusted EBITDA from
PPACA of approx. 1%-2%, which implies $65-$135 million benefit. HCA
expects 2013 adj. admits to range from +1% to +2% and rev/ adj. admits +2%
to+3%. Guidance also includes HITECH incentive payments $110-$130 million
and HITECH related expenses of $110-$130 million. We believe guidance was
very conservatively established, but not unexpected. EBITDA guidance
represents growth of flat to +4% and relative to consensus EBTIDA of $6.82
billion we believe HCA's outlook provides a reasonable start. Recall HCA
finished 2013 with EBITDA -1% above the top-end of its original guidance
range.
F gum 7 F€CA 2014 Guidance vs. DBe and Consensus
2014
Guidance
DB Estimate
Consensus
Resenues
$35.508 - $36.508
$36.5868
536.1388
Adjusted EBITDA
56.606 • 56.8513
$7.0498
S6 8218
PPACA Benet'
$66M - $137M
$15014 - $20001
NA
Adjusted EPS
$3.45 - $3.75
$3.92
$3.78